Gartner sees 6.9 mn WiMax users by ’11, warns of hype

MUMBAI: Research house Gartner expects India to have 6.9 million WiMax connections by the end of 2011 but has cautioned that only quicker spectrum allocation and licensing from the government, and not the current hype, can help this wireless broadband technology be adopted widely. “We don’t see much growth in the next one or two years” as the spectrum squeeze drags on, a Gartner analyst who co-authored a report on the sector, said.

The government has touted WiMax as the answer for connecting the so-called last mile to rural households and e-governance kiosks and paving the way for higher Internet adoption. However, its departments and public sector institutions have occupied most of the wireless frequency spectrum that must be allotted to service providers. With whatever little spectrum is available, mobile companies including WiMax operators are jostling with each other to provide connectivity.

“The government had good objectives in mind when they came out with their broadband policy. But they did not really take adequate initiatives in freeing spectrum for broadband wireless,” Naresh Singh, Gartner analyst told ET. “So, the Indian WiMax market is not promising in the near-term, except for niche use like enterprises and high-end users,” he said.

Gartner’s study titled “Beware of WiMax hype in India” said the low personal computer usage in the country as well as the lack of adequate spectrum will act as hurdles to the growth of wireless broadband. As a result, the government will not be able to realise its ambition to take WiMax to villages in the next few years, Mr Singh said.

Seven companies have been licensed to offer WiMax services in India, but in the 3.5 GHz band with a very narrow slot of 5 MHz each, Mr Singh said. The microwave frequency band must be much wider to aid a rapid growth in subscribers, he added. The government also plans to open up the popular 2.5 GHz band and give each service provider double the current frequency, but it would be at least a few months before the rollout happens, he said. “So, till 2009, we don’t expect full-blown WiMax services to be available in India.”

In recent years, several wireless technologies have emerged, but most of them have become obsolete even before the governments and industry got around to standardise and adopt them. The latest “horses in the race”, Mr Singh said, are WiMax and the third-generation wireless CDMA (code division multiple access) technology.

The Indian government has sought to encourage both, letting market forces eventually decide the more popular technology. But Mr Singh said WiMax has seen better traction so far with services already beginning in many cities. Eventually, it would be the mobile phones and not computers that will drive the adoption of WiMax, he said. “Indian users seem to have a propensity for mobile services both for voice and data,” and hence there is a case for encouraging mobile WiMax services.

Source : EconomicTimes